“Isolated and uncoordinated”: Study examines global climate adaptation
Germany lost at least 145 billion euros of gross domestic product (GDP) between 2000 and 2021 due to climate damage that caused more frequent and more intense storms, heat waves and droughts. This number was determined by a research project commissioned by the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Protection (BMWK).
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The project’s final discussion paper predicts losses of at least 280 billion euros for Germany by 2050. In the worst case, it could even be 910 billion euros, which corresponds to the current annual GDP of almost 20 million inhabitants. These figures do not even take into account the loss of health, deaths, loss of biodiversity and poorer quality of life.
In view of the increasing climate damage, adaptation measures are becoming increasingly important. They can protect, but are not a license not to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Adaptations do not help prevent climate-related weather disasters, but simply reduce the cost of cleanup between disasters. Furthermore, there is a limit at which adjustments are no longer sufficient.
Overview of adaptation measures
But all over the world, not just in Germany, there is a lack of comprehensive concepts. Entire societies, extensive infrastructures and risk management must fundamentally change. In Germany, climate adaptation is largely the responsibility of the federal states. But because relevant infrastructure such as roads and sewage systems are in municipal hands, municipalities are also in demand. But according to a survey by NDR, there are clear differences in the implementation of individual measures in northern Germany alone. The federal government wants to present an adaptation strategy with measurable goals by the end of 2024. There is already a strategic framework for preventive climate adaptation at all administrative levels in Germany. A look at Germany alone shows a patchwork of measures with varying scope when it comes to climate adaptation.
An international team of 30 scientists from the Climate Research Excellence Cluster in Hamburg and the University of Munich has now looked at the global situation. Their study shows that there is a global lack of comprehensive cooperation between state and non-state actors to better protect societies from the effects of climate change. In their study, the scientists evaluated over 1,400 scientific publications to gain an overview of the progress in adaptation measures worldwide.
“Our study suggests that adaptation to climate change still takes place in isolation and uncoordinated,” says Kerstin Jantke, co-author and environmental scientist in the Climate Excellence Cluster at the University of Hamburg. “That is disproportionate to how urgent and important this major task is.”
The study shows that it is primarily individuals and households in the global south who are trying to prepare for the impending climate impacts. They – including farmers, for example – remain largely on their own. For example, they grow heat- and drought-resistant grain varieties, construct flood dams or drill deeper wells.
In the cities, on the other hand, it is politicians and administrations who are trying to implement adaptation measures. Governments and their authorities create the framework conditions through new laws, state planning and financial support for individual measures. Only in rich regions, such as Europe, North America and Australia, do governments get directly involved in the reconstruction and protection of infrastructure and particularly vulnerable areas.
Locally limited adjustments
In Central and South America, civil society organizations promote adaptation measures and also support their implementation.
Small island states affected by rising sea levels often receive support for conservation initiatives from international or multinational government institutions.
The private sector, from small businesses to corporations, is generally not involved in this social provision. It primarily only protects its production facilities, storage rooms, energy supply and transport routes. Scientists who could be available as consultants or experts are also rarely involved.
Such separate structures and uncoordinated distribution of tasks ultimately only lead to localized adaptations with little depth.
However, to effectively protect societies, profound changes are often required. These include the climate-friendly conversion of forests or the conversion of agricultural land into flood areas. Cities have to create new infrastructure, and sometimes it is even necessary for entire coastal towns to relocate.
All of this can only be achieved through comprehensive concepts in which all levels of society work together. Close cooperation between politics, business, administration and even farmers is therefore important.
More knowledge about adaptation needs to come together
“If it is primarily individuals such as farmers and small farmers who are involved worldwide, then this also shows that there is a lack of cooperation between different groups of actors. However, this would be a prerequisite for sustainable adaptation projects,” says Jan Petzold, lead author of the study and geographer at the University of Munich
However, broad cooperation at all levels also has the advantage that undesirable consequences of adaptation measures can be avoided because more knowledge and different experiences come together. Although dikes and dams protect people and settlements against flash floods and high water, they can also destroy coastlines and wetlands, reduce biodiversity and impair the natural CO₂ sequestration by plants. Examples include damaged seagrass meadows, mangrove forests and coral reefs due to coastal protection structures. Carelessly introduced tree species that cope better with hotter climates can also become invasive, completely displace native plants and introduce new diseases.
Ultimately, however, all greenhouse gas emissions must be zero. The gases already present in the atmosphere will continue to determine the climate for decades, if not centuries. Weather disasters will therefore continue to occur. Adjustments only help to somehow deal with the new normal in the future.
(jl)
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