The UN revised its forecasts for the world economy upwards and now expects growth of 2.3% for this year thanks to better prospects in the United States, Europe and China.
The organization improved its calculation by four tenths compared to the one it had published in January, but worsened its forecast for 2024 by two tenths, when it expects the world to grow by 2.5%.
The United Nations, in a report, attributes the 2023 review mainly to the resilience of household spending in the US, to improvements in the European Union (EU) due to consumption and the drop in gas prices, and to higher growth in China due to the lifting of restrictions imposed by covid-19.
As a positive element, the organization highlights above all the strength shown by the labor market in developed economies, with high employment rates in the United States and Europe and wage improvements in many places.
Meanwhile, he points out that precisely this situation is complicating the work of central banks to control inflation, which continues to be very high in many countries and warns that more cooperation is needed to ensure that the strong monetary adjustment that is being seen does not sink the economies of developing countries.
The UN expects the US economy to grow by 1.1% this year (7 tenths more than it forecast in January), but also warns that “significant fragilities” have become evident in recent months, for example with the recent banking crisis and difficulties to control inflation.
By the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, the United Nations expects a contraction as a result of foreseeable corrections in the real estate market and in the demand for credit, which should curb spending and investment.
In 2024, it forecasts that the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will grow by 1%, seven tenths less than before.
In the case of Europe, the report points out that the economies of the Old Continent “have proven to be more resilient than previously expected” and, therefore, the growth forecast for this year improves by 7 tenths, up to 0.9%.
“Although high energy prices, persistent inflation and aggressive monetary tightening have weighed heavily on economic growth, most countries have so far escaped recession and the near-term outlook has improved,” the document says. , which does not provide data broken down by country.
For 2024, the UN lowered its growth forecast in the EU by one tenth, to 1.5%.
In the case of the United Kingdom, the UN continues to expect an economic contraction for this year, but less than expected, only 0.1%, and a rebound of 1.1% next year.
One of the biggest changes with respect to the report that the United Nations had presented in January occurs with Russia, because while then it expected a fall of 2.9%, now it expects it to be only 0.6%.
For its part, the Chinese economy, one of the great engines of world growth, will grow 5.3% this year (5 tenths more) and 4.5% next year (without changes) thanks to the recovery in consumption and of investments after the end of many of the emergency measures established during the pandemic.
In Latin America and the Caribbean, the UN maintains its growth forecast of 1.4% this year and revises that of 2024 by one tenth, to 2.4%, considering that it confirms the slowdown of which it already warned in January and that particularly affects Argentina, Chile, Brazil and Colombia.
Despite the fact that 2023 will be less bleak than the United Nations initially expected, the organization stresses that the world faces the prospect of a prolonged period of low growth due to the effects left by the pandemic, the growing impact of climate change and problems macroeconomic issues that remain unresolved.
This poses problems especially for regions such as Africa and Latin America, where a long-term stagnation seems to be confirmed and where the economies are not being able to facilitate the investments that are considered necessary for the future. with EFE