[Epoch Times, October 3, 2022](The Epoch Times reporter Song Tang comprehensive report) The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is approaching, and various versions of the new Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China have begun to circulate. Recently, the Asia Society, headquartered in New York, USA, released a report predicting five possibilities for members of the 20th National Congress of the Standing Committee.
The report said Xi Jinping was initially thought to serve only two five-year terms, from 2013 to 2023, but now it looks like he will be re-elected for at least a third, and likely lifetime, term. Securing re-election was Xi Jinping’s primary political goal at the 20th Party Congress, which became one of the most important meetings in the history of the Communist Party.
While Xi Jinping is almost certain to be re-elected, he also wants to appoint as many cronies as possible to the Politburo, paving the way for an indefinite re-election. But he may not be completely successful, and other opposition forces are still exerting their influence. Therefore, the personnel choices at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China are a barometer of Xi Jinping’s power and help to predict the direction of the CCP’s politics and policies in the future.
In CCP politics, where the rules are always manipulated by power, and Xi Jinping follows less of the old rules, predicting the members of the 20th Politburo and Politburo Standing Committee is fraught with challenges.
Five Possibilities for Politburo Standing Committee Members
If the age standard is used, in addition to Xi Jinping, two of the seven standing committee members (Li Zhanshu and Han Zheng) will step down. Li Zhanshu is a longtime friend and ally of Mr. Xi, but the 72-year-old is sure to leave office. Han is a member of the Jiang faction, and Xi is also very happy that he can leave. For the remaining four standing committee seats, Xi Jinping prefers to be replaced by younger cronies, so members of the “1955 Generation” (Li Keqiang, Wang Yang and Wang Huning) are also encouraged to retire.
Xi Jinping’s priorities are quite clear: replacing Li Keqiang with his own cronies as the next prime minister is the key to the redistribution of power at the 20th Party Congress, and the most worth watching.
Scenario 1:Xi Jinping cronies seize the premiership. In this case, the prime minister is either Mr. Xi’s confidant, Li Qiang, who is currently Shanghai’s party secretary and Politburo member, or another dark-horse ally loyal to Mr. Xi. Li Qiang seems to be Xi Jinping’s first choice for prime minister, but the failure of Shanghai’s epidemic prevention this year has weakened Li’s competitiveness. If Li Qiang can still be prime minister, it can prove that Xi Jinping is still very strong politically.
If Li Qiang is the prime minister, as a compromise, Li Keqiang may serve as the chairman of the National People’s Congress, and Hu Chunhua from the regiment may replace Han Zheng as the executive vice premier. Among Wang Yang, Wang Huning and Zhao Leji, one or two may stay or retire. Ding Xuexiang, Huang Kunming, Li Xi or Chen Min’er and other Xi’s cronies will take over from Zhao Leji’s Central Commission for Discipline Inspection.
Scenario 2:Wang Yang (linked to Tuanpai) became prime minister. If Wang Yang becomes prime minister, Li Keqiang will almost certainly be pushed out of the standing committee and fully retired, and Hu Chunhua will most likely be excluded from the standing committee (since Xi will not allow two delegations to run the State Council). In this case, Li Qiang would likely replace Han Zheng as executive vice-premier, while other Xi cronies such as Ding Xuexiang, Chen Miner, Li Xi or Cai Qi would replace Zhao Leji as secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection. Zhao Leji and Wang Huning will become the heads of the National People’s Congress or the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, and another Xi ally (probably Huang Kunming) will succeed Wang Huning, an ideological expert, as head of the Central Secretariat.
Scenario 3:Han Zheng became prime minister. This possibility is relatively small, which means that the age standard is abandoned, Li Keqiang will also remain on the Standing Committee, as the chairman of the National People’s Congress, and Wang Yang may also continue to serve as the chairman of the CPPCC. Wang Huning may retire and Zhao Leji will take his place. Li Qiang, a close confidant of Xi Jinping, could still become executive vice-premier, while other cronies such as Chen Min’er, Ding Xuexiang, Li Xi, Cai Qi or Huang Kunming will compete for the secretary of the Central Discipline Inspection Commission.
Scenario 4:Xi Jinping is unfettered. In this case, Xi Jinping can establish his ideal standing committee composition. Li Keqiang, Han Zheng, Wang Yang, Wang Huning and Li Zhanshu have all been replaced by young cronies who are absolutely loyal to Xi. Ding Xuexiang, Li Qiang, Chen Min’er, Huang Kunming and Li Xi are all potential candidates. Xi Jinping may also show measure, promoting members of another faction, such as Hu Chunhua, to the Standing Committee. That’s unlikely to happen, but it’s also hard to say.
Scenario 5:Expand the number of Standing Committee members from 7 to 9. Instead of trying to drive out more old members, Xi may also expand the number of members of the Standing Committee to stabilize other factions. But in this case, Xi could come under intense pressure (including from his own allies) to build the next generation of leadership by appointing more young officials to the standing committee.
Politburo members battle
According to the age limit, among the 25 members of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China, 9 members are about to retire, including Xi Jinping’s economic adviser Liu He, top diplomat Yang Jiechi, Secretary of the Political and Legal Committee Guo Shengkun, and two vice-chairmen of the Central Military Commission Xu Qiliang and Zhang Youxia. Two commissioners (such as Chen Quanguo) may also be urged to retire despite their age.
In the competition for members of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China, there are three powerful competitors.
He Lifeng (born February 1955): He Lifeng, vice chairman of the CPPCC and director of the National Development and Reform Commission, is most likely to replace Liu He as vice premier in charge of economic and financial affairs. He Lifeng has an economics degree from Xiamen University, where he worked with Xi Jinping. In the past five years, He Lifeng has accompanied Xi Jinping on almost all of his domestic and foreign visits.
Miao Hua (born in November 1955): Miao Hua is a member of the CPC Central Military Commission and director of the Political Department of the CMC. He is most likely to enter the Political Bureau and serve as the next vice-chairman of the CMC. Miao Hua has long-term contacts with Xi Jinping in Fujian, and Miao Hua also served as a political commissar of the navy, which further increases Miao Hua’s chances given the growing status of the navy.
Ma Xingrui (born in October 1959): Ma Xingrui is currently the party secretary of Xinjiang. He is an aerospace engineer who has served as secretary of the Shenzhen Municipal Party Committee and governor of Guangdong. His hometown of Yuncheng, Shandong is also the birthplace of Xi Jinping’s wife Peng Liyuan.
Other possible candidates include:
Yang Zhenwu (born in May 1955): Currently the secretary-general of the Standing Committee of the CCP, Yang Zhenwu may succeed Wang Chen and enter the next Politburo, becoming the second-ranking figure in the NPC. The relationship between Yang Zhenwu and Xi Jinping can be traced back to when they worked in Hebei in their early years. Since the next chairman of the National People’s Congress is likely not to be a close ally of Xi, Xi needs to ensure that his cronies are in charge of the day-to-day operations of the National People’s Congress. In this regard, Yang Zhenwu is the best choice.
Wang Xiaohong (born in July 1957): currently Secretary of the Party Committee and Minister of the Ministry of Public Security, recently appointed Deputy Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Committee. Wang Xiaohong is said to be one of Xi’s most trusted people, and their relationship dates back to Xiamen in the 1980s. After Xi Jinping came to power, he strictly controlled the so-called “knife handle”, and Wang Xiaohong got a rapid promotion.
Chen Yixin (born in September 1959): currently the Secretary-General of the Political and Legal Committee of the Communist Party of China, a close ally of Xi Jinping, who worked with Xi Jinping in Zhejiang Province, and like Wang Xiaohong, was promoted rapidly in the process of Xi Jinping’s control of the “knife handle”. If Xi Jinping is capable enough to send both men to the Politburo at the same time, Chen could be removed from the political-legal system.
Xiao Jie (born in June 1957): Xiao Jie is currently a State Councilor and Secretary-General of the State Council. He was a former Minister of Finance and has a close working relationship with Li Keqiang. He has a similar educational background to Liu He and could be the product of a compromise between Xi and Li in the Politburo, appearing as vice premier.
Gong Zheng (born in March 1960): Mayor of Shanghai, rumored to be Liu He’s brother-in-law. Shanghai party secretary Li Qiang is almost certain to go to Beijing. Gong Zheng is likely to become the next Shanghai party secretary and thus the Politburo.
Zhang Qingwei (born in November 1961): Secretary of the Hunan Provincial Party Committee, Zhang Qingwei is the most qualified current provincial Party secretary of the Communist Party of China, and a leader of officials with a military background. In the era of Xi Jinping, this group had great influence. But Zhang Qingwei’s promotion was mainly during Jiang Zemin’s time, which would reduce his trust, while other candidates with similar backgrounds, such as Ma Xingrui and Lou Yangsheng, are more likely to enter the Politburo.
Lou Yangsheng (born in October 1959): Secretary of the Henan Provincial Party Committee, with a background of working under Xi Jinping, Lou Yangsheng is the second most senior of the CCP’s provincial Party secretaries, second only to Zhang Qingwei. His experience as secretary of the provincial party committee of two provinces (first Shanxi, then Henan) was unmatched by his peers, which helped him enter the bureau.
Chen Yiqin (born December 1959) or Shen Yueyue (born January 1957): Traditionally the CCP Politburo only includes a symbolic female member, currently this member is Sun Chunlan, who will definitely retire and be able to replace her Most likely Chen Yiqin or Shen Yueyue. Shen Yueyue has more seniority and has worked in Zhejiang, Xi Jinping’s power base, but with a background in the Communist Youth League, the only female provincial party secretary, Chen Yiqin, may be a more powerful candidate. Another advantage of Chen Yiqin is that she worked with Li Zhanshu in Guizhou and is an ethnic minority, but she lacks governance experience at the national level.
Liu Guozhong (born in July 1962): Secretary of the Shaanxi Provincial Party Committee and a close associate of Li Zhanshu.
Zhang Guoqing (born in August 1964): Secretary of the Liaoning Provincial Party Committee, former mayor of Tianjin, and former mayor of Chongqing. According to Xi Jinping’s recent high-profile visit to Liaoning, his chances of entering the Politburo appear to be better than the average person.
Hao Peng (born in July 1960): Director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, former Governor of Qinghai Province.
Yin Li (born August 1962): Secretary of the Fujian Provincial Party Committee, through Peng Liyuan, has some ties to Xi Jinping.
Dark horse candidates include:
Jing Junhai (born in December 1960) and Xu Lingyi (born in April 1958): Jing Junhai is the secretary of Jilin Province, and Xu is the deputy secretary of the CCP Disciplinary Committee. If Xi Jinping can dominate the employment, one or two of them may be promoted to Politburo members. Jing Junhai, a native of Shaanxi, built a luxurious tomb for Xi’s father, Xi Zhongxun, and won Xi’s favor. Xu Lingyi is Xi Jinping’s old subordinate in Zhejiang.
Chen Jining (born February 1964) and Li Shulei (born January 1964): Chen was the mayor of Beijing (close ties to Xi Jinping’s ally Chen Xi), while Li Shulei was the executive vice-minister of the CCP’s Propaganda Department (rumored to have is Xi Jinping’s personal secretary). They are all young rising stars, and entering the Politburo will be a long process, but it is still possible if Xi decides to make the younger generation an important target of reorganizing the Politburo.
Responsible editor: Lin Yan#